Predictions for the Hong Kong legal market 2025

It’s been a busy first couple of weeks of 2025 as I’ve been keeping my ears close to the ground and speaking to a lot of people, so here’s my round up of predictions for the Hong Kong legal market. 

1. More new legal jobs will continue to appear on the scene as the year goes by, but the first half of the year will certainly remain a buyer’s market with supplies of candidates in the legal field outstripping demand. Employers are getting more ‘picky’ and rejecting even top tier firm candidates who have been out of jobs for more than six months. Interviews are getting tougher too with more candidates being rejected on their soft skills (clue: lack of prep). 

2. There are many industries that are on its knees and still holding on for dear life: real estate, construction, food and beverage, leisure, retail. But this year will likely see more of these businesses succumb to administrations, restructurings, fire sales, and turnarounds. Great if you’re in the R&I (Restructuring & Insolvency), banking and M&A space, as Insolvency Practitioners (of the accounting species) are forecasting 30% increases in R&I activity this year. 

3. Regulatory (contentious and non-contentious), M&A, TMT, digital assets (web3, blockchain), privacy, and international arbitration are key areas that will see continued demand and activities for legal teams and this will result in a steady increasing demand for lawyers, particularly at the mid-level. If M&A and PE picks up markedly, expect a corresponding pick-up in banking and finance activities to fund those deals, and funds work to raise investments. 

4. DCM legal teams will start getting busier again with demand for bonds continuing to grow during the year if the anticipated interest rate cuts resume. 

5. ECM will continue its steady return but most of the action will probably be seen among the PRC firms as they out-compete international law firms on cost alone and increasingly employing the lawyers who used to work at said international law firms. 

6. Dare I say it, there’ll be at least one overseas law firm looking to establish a presence or return to Hong Kong. Despite the geo-politics, there’ll be many surprises and knock-on effects in store for the legal industry with Trump’s return to office. 

7. Correspondingly, some international law firm will close in Hong Kong. It’s happened every year since 2015 starting with Fried Frank, why would this year be different.

8. There'll be more ties-up between PRC Mainland and Hong Kong law firms. 

9. AI will really take off, more so within in-house legal teams. 

10. The legal secretary is DEAD. Or rather, its function as the legal industry once knew it, continues to be phased out as more technology is being used. There are many legal secretaries with over fifteen years’ experience who have been unemployable over the last two years and that pool is growing. If you’re reading this and about to embark on a career as a legal secretary, don’t do it, there is no future in this role.

This opinion was first posted on LinkedIn in early January 2025. Click here to read the comments on LinkedIn, or comment below!